Dear Comrades,
The ongoing National Resistance Movement (NRM) Central Executive Committee (CEC) elections have stirred debate across Uganda. To many, the contests suggest cracks within the ruling party. Yet to a growing number of analysts, this is not a crisis at all. Instead, it is President Yoweri Museveni’s most carefully calculated move: a long-term plan to secure succession, possibly in favour of his son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
A Generational Reset
Figures such as Rebecca Kadaga, once towering in Uganda’s politics, are being moved aside. In their place, younger leaders are rising, the Vice President, the Speaker of Parliament, the Prime Minister, all broadly contemporaries of Muhoozi. This is not accidental. It looks like choreography, a calculated generational reset designed to make Muhoozi’s eventual rise appear natural, even inevitable.
In this reading, the CEC elections are not a fight for the party’s soul but a rehearsal for succession. Museveni is reshaping the landscape, sometimes invisibly, often ruthlessly, into a vehicle for continuity.
Genius or Dynasty?
Here lies the dilemma.
For admirers, Museveni has once again shown his unmatched skill at political chess. To survive in power for nearly four decades requires foresight, adaptability, and timing. By preparing the future now, he proves that he plays not just today’s game but tomorrow’s as well.
For critics, this is dynasty politics dressed in the language of genius. It is less about securing Uganda’s democratic future and more about entrenching a family project. Institutions are weakened, succession becomes personalised, and the NRM risks shrinking into a family estate.
Either way, Museveni has done what few leaders in Africa have managed: he has extended his influence beyond his own rule. Some would even say he has secured himself a place in the “Book of Political Genius.” But the question remains, genius for whom?
Uganda’s Test
Uganda’s true test is not whether Muhoozi rises. The real test is whether the nation emerges stronger, or more fragile, when politics is built not on institutions but on individuals. Succession may secure Museveni’s legacy, but will it secure Uganda’s? That is the question history will answer.
By Gertrude Kamya Othieno
Political Sociologist and Director of ACP Community Research & Training Centre
gkothieno@gmail.com
Bantu MEDIA 